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Aerospace Instrument-Making

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Processing Weakly Structured Information in Risk Management Tasks for Complex Technical Systems
Rodionov D.G., Konnikov E.A., Polyakov P.A.

Digitalization and the increasing complexity of man-made systems are leading to a rise in the volume of operational
data and the number of text messages about events and deviations. A significant portion of this data remains poorly
structured. This hinders the comparable assessment and prioritization of risk factors. This paper proposes a method
for processing loosely structured information for interpretable risk modeling. The method translates factors into
the space of infl uence (I), stochastic stability (S), and prevalence (P) indices. The approach is implemented by
extracting factors from texts, constructing an accident rate model, and calculating indices followed by clustering.
The method has been tested on a corpus of NRC messages with three accident levels: non-accidental, low, and
high. A Monte Carlo test has been performed, and the division of factors into critical and routine has been shown,
as well as the inverse relationship between I and S. The proposed approach is applicable to event logs, incident
notifications, and reports in the nuclear power, electric power, oil and gas, chemical, and transportation industries.
Keywords: stochastic stability index, risk factors, criticality, proactive safety management, Monte Carlo simulation, interpretable analysis,
weakly structured data, ICE sensitivity analysis.


DOI: 10.25791/aviakosmos.3.2026.1546

Pp. 53-61.

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