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Aerospace Instrument-Making

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A Trust-Semantic Method for Predicting Increased Failure Activity of Aviation Subsystems based on BERT Representations of Semi-Structured Information
Rytov M.Yu.

This paper develops a trust-semantic method for short-term prediction of increased failure activity in
aircraft subsystems based on BERT representations of weakly structured operational information. The
method combines structured failure-dynamics features, contextual indicators of the operational environment,
aggregated BERT representations of defect narratives, and a trust coefficient that downweights incomplete or
contradictory messages. Experimental validation was carried out on the open FAA Service Difficulty Reports
dataset for 2023–2025; a panel of 24083 observations for 1297 persistent aircraft-model and subsystem pairs
was constructed. The developed approach achieved the best top-of-the-list risk prioritization performance
among the compared models, namely Precision@20 = 0.9250 and NDCG@20 = 0.9379. These results
confirm that trust-aware semantic processing of weakly structured defect reports improves the selection of
subsystems that should receive priority preventive actions in reliability management.
Keywords: reliability management, aircraft subsystems, weakly structured information, BERT, embeddings, risk-based
prioritization, failure activity prediction.


DOI: 10.25791/aviakosmos.8.2026.1576

Pp. 26-38.

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