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Aerospace Instrument-Making

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Graph-Transport Method for Identifying Risk Factors and Assessing the Reliability of Complex Technical Systems using Weakly Structured Operational Data
Konnikov E.A., Rodionov D.G.

This paper develops a graph-transport method for identifying risk factors and assessing the reliability of complex
technical systems from weakly structured operational data. The proposed GTBRN method is designed for multimodal
operational datasets combining SCADA measurements, event logs, short alarm messages, and availability
intervals. The novelty of the approach lies in representing each operational window as a multimodal distribution
that jointly integrates a numerical regime profile, an event-semantic representation of weakly structured text, and
the graph structure of subsystem interactions. An entropy-regularized transport deviation is used to compare the
current state with normal and pre-event templates, while the final risk and reliability estimates are produced by a
stable probabilistic head. Experimental validation was carried out on the open Fuhrlander wind turbine dataset
for 2012-2014 and included comparisons with Cox PH, DSGRN, logistic regression, and Extra Trees. The results
show that, at the 24-hour forecast horizon, the full GTBRN version achieves the best ROC AUC and Average
Precision among the evaluated models, confirming its applicability to risk-based maintenance and early detection
of hazardous operational windows.
Keywords: weakly structured operational data; reliability of technical systems; risk factor identification; optimal transport; graph-based
models; SCADA; alarm message analysis; risk assessment; risk-oriented monitoring.


DOI: 10.25791/aviakosmos.8.2026.1575

Pp. 15-25.

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