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Aerospace Instrument-Making

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"INFORMATION EXPLOSION": INTELLECTUAL MODEL LIKELY SCENARIOS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT
A.V. Gulaj, V.M. Zajcev

The intelligent model of “information explosion” development dynamics is proposed as parametric display of the human-made disaster, and the intelligent technology of determining the trajectories of migrations of critical parameters of dangerous installations is shown. The generalized analysis of the allowed level of disaster origin threat is carried out on the basis of the application of a fuzzy logic apparatus, expert determination of allowed limits for object parameters and calculation of functions of their belonging to fail-safe functioning areas. Possible forecasting of the “information explosion” originating moment and determination of the time reserve for disaster prevention is shown, provided that dynamic changes of the aforesaid membership functions are continuously controlled.
Keywords: information explosion; intelligent model; critical parameters; threat level; the tree of scenarios.


DOI: 10.25791/aviakosmos.09.2020.1180

Pp. 50-59.

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